Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x8594…7eed other 1106 markets active 23h ago coverage 169d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 169d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$518 · open +$477
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%560W / 512L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$82
14 days+$174
30 days+$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$642
world 22% +$773
tech 11% −$1,194
culture 11% +$1,328
politics 10% +$137
sports 8% +$1,707
economics 0% −$164
finance 0% −$98
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 44% -3.5%
≤30d 86 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 45% -5.2%
≤90d 360 -3.0% -12.2% 47% 43% -6.9%
all 1072 -4.9% -14.0% 52% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -8.5%
10% -22.2% 35% -17.2%
15% -29.7% 26% -25.2%
20% -36.6% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$38 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$4,406
Realized−$518
Unrealized+$477
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses560 / 512
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1072 / 1106
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$113
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1072 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 91¢ $556 $699 +$142 (+26%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $430 $512 +$82 (+19%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $401 $481 +$80 (+20%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 68¢ 92¢ $274 $368 +$94 (+34%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $258 $363 +$106 (+41%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $338 $340 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 77¢ 84¢ $254 $279 +$25 (+10%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 64¢ 78¢ $205 $251 +$46 (+23%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 60¢ 75¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $119 $124 +$5 (+4%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $108 $110 +$2 (+2%)
Unit FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 66¢ 60¢ $111 $99 −$12 (-10%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 92¢ $67 $79 +$12 (+17%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 63¢ 70¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 82¢ 91¢ $48 $53 +$5 (+11%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 37¢ 62¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+66%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 46¢ 11¢ $200 $48 −$152 (-76%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 57¢ $51 $40 −$11 (-22%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 86¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+97%)
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $32 $34 +$3 (+9%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bodø/Glimt win Norway Eliteserien? No 62¢ 57¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-43%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $100 +$51 +50%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $102 −$13 -12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$48 -48%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 +$61 +89%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 15 $60 −$48 -79%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$18 +35%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $10 +$19 +190%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +56%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $166 +$33 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $100 −$4 -4%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $56 −$24 -42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Bigetron by Vitality vs EVOS (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 10 $10 +$3 +31%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $142 +$58 +41%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10 +$53 +525%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 08 $10 −$8 -78%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $50 −$34 -69%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $541 +$67 +12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $466 −$16 -3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $26 −$18 -67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 03 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $543 +$4 +1%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $441 +$82 +18%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 03 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $38 −$33 -86%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 01 $15 +$63 +416%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $30 −$21 -69%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $77 +$22 +28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $452 −$12 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 31 $122 +$35 +29%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $597 +$74 +12%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 30 $206 +$54 +26%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? May 30 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $52 −$31 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $89 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $53 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 25h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $129 25h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 25h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 70¢ $20 2d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind BUY Bigetron by Vitality 34¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 62¢ $10 2d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $5 2d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $199 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $96 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 66¢ $100 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 4d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Geek Fam ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - BUY Bigetron by Vitality 65¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,406.06 · official $4,403.45 (match) · 3500 history records