Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8597…daee world 169 markets active 0h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$104,544 (+9%) realized +$84,679 · open +$19,865
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate79%114W / 31L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$6,983per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$124,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,258
7 days−$4,080
14 days+$4,196
30 days+$6,022
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$47,549
politics 11% +$8,598
other 10% +$15,423
crypto 7% +$8,220
sports 1% +$7,150
tech 1% +$737
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +3.1% -6.7% 76% 35% -15.4%
≤30d 62 -0.3% -9.8% 77% 31% -8.1%
≤90d 145 +11.3% +0.7% 79% 34% -3.5%
all 145 +11.3% +0.7% 79% 34% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.7% 34% -3.5%
10% -8.9% 17% -12.7%
15% ← realistic here -17.7% 12% -21.2%
20% -25.8% 10% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$8,534) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,337 vs −$2,730 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$124,498
Realized+$84,679
Unrealized+$19,865
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses114 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions26
Markets (closed)145 / 169
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$6,983
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $21,383 $23,622 +$2,239 (+10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 72¢ 92¢ $7,900 $10,175 +$2,275 (+29%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 88¢ $8,684 $9,751 +$1,067 (+12%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $8,349 $8,404 +$55 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 62¢ $5,798 $8,137 +$2,339 (+40%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 45¢ 99¢ $3,627 $8,016 +$4,390 (+121%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 44¢ $4,387 $6,920 +$2,533 (+58%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $4,999 $5,495 +$496 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5,371 $5,444 +$74 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 70¢ 82¢ $4,216 $4,989 +$773 (+18%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $3,854 $4,562 +$708 (+18%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $3,849 $3,933 +$84 (+2%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $3,216 $3,869 +$653 (+20%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 70¢ $3,119 $3,798 +$679 (+22%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $3,743 $3,773 +$30 (+1%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3,255 $3,392 +$136 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 63¢ 84¢ $2,483 $3,317 +$834 (+34%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 82¢ 86¢ $2,050 $2,162 +$112 (+5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $961 $980 +$18 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $873 $937 +$64 (+7%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $954 $893 −$61 (-6%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $713 $769 +$56 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $532 $618 +$86 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $286 $535 +$249 (+87%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $704 +$6 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $2,229 +$355 +16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 23 $7,532 +$897 +12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 23 $5,125 +$741 +14%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $2,469 +$154 +6%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30? Jun 22 $150 +$12 +8%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,440 +$2,560 +178%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $244 +$6 +2%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $15 +$2 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 22 $4,469 −$1,718 -38%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 21 $3,257 −$3,257 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,834 +$1,325 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $5,687 +$104 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6,582 +$140 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $6,818 +$390 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $14,451 −$5,795 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 18 $4,007 −$1,054 -26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Jun 18 $3,133 +$172 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 18 $7,012 −$7,012 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $6,612 −$6,612 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $23,504 −$5,224 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10,440 +$16,939 +162%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $23,019 +$9,561 +42%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $7,811 −$1,329 -17%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $520 −$484 -93%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 17 $3,784 +$155 +4%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $12,550 +$1,433 +11%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2,100 +$594 +28%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $6,761 +$551 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $8,414 +$586 +7%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $14,105 +$743 +5%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $442 +$39 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,009 +$591 +29%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $4,496 +$4 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,590 +$910 +35%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $5,155 +$395 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5,606 +$376 +7%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $589 +$18 +3%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1,361 +$57 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $79,864 +$8,220 +10%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $4,838 −$3,695 -76%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $7,974 +$25 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5,340 +$120 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $594 +$5 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $12,065 −$8,065 -67%
Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations? Jun 01 $4,259 +$260 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $9,562 +$4,499 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,670 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $328 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 7¢ $868 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $1,762 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $720 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5,136 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $200 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124,498.42 · official $124,498.43 (match) · 3500 history records