Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x8598…89c9 crypto 173 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3467 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,447 (-81%) realized −$1,447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%69W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3467.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3467 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +22.1% +10.5% 37% 34% -10.6%
≤30d 189 +22.1% +10.5% 37% 34% -10.6%
≤90d 189 +22.1% +10.5% 37% 34% -10.6%
all 189 +22.1% +10.5% 37% 34% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3467.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.5% 34% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.1% 28% -19.1%
15% -9.8% 15% -26.9%
20% -18.6% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses69 / 120
Open positions0
Markets (closed)189 / 173
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3467.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 189 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -2205%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -51445%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$14 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$9 -762%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$12 -802%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$8 -823%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$6 +193%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$38 -675%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +185%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$4 +384%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$13 -416%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -69521%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$26 -255%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$2 +146%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -55%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$2 -25%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 10, 2PM ET? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? SELL No 41¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? BUY No 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? SELL No 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? SELL Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 2PM ET? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.95 · official $122.58 (match) · 3500 history records