Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859a…10f3 crypto 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+3%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%102W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day239.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 55% -9.6%
≤30d 158 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 55% -9.6%
≤90d 158 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 55% -9.6%
all 158 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 55% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 55% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 47% -18.3%
15% -24.9% 39% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 26% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses102 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day239.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$41 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$64 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$85 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$97 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $112 +$37 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 347 history records