Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:00:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859b…d03a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$132 (+8%) realized −$9 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$49
14 days−$50
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$95
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -19.0% -26.7% 21% 21% -13.0%
≤30d 15 -24.4% -31.6% 20% 20% -13.1%
≤90d 15 -24.4% -31.6% 20% 20% -13.1%
all 16 -11.1% -19.6% 25% 25% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 25% -12.9%
10% -27.3% 12% -21.2%
15% -34.3% 6% -28.8%
20% -40.7% 6% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$11 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$521
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage211d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 22¢ 59¢ $111 $294 +$183 (+165%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $160 $122 −$39 (-24%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $108 $105 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $170 +$43 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $388 −$21 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $54 −$12 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $110 −$10 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $116 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $70 +$14 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $120 +$25 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $45 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $60 −$22 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $48 −$10 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $31 −$23 -72%
Fed rate hike in 2025? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Justin Aguiar convicted of sexual assault before 2027? Nov 26 $1 +$2 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $36 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $84 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $85 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $107 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $95 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $59 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $31 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $135 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $65 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 26h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $183 27h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $105 28h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $38 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $100 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $70 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $520.97 · official $520.97 (match) · 116 history records