Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859b…6d2b other 55 markets active 13h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-3%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%23W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$7
sports 24% −$27
crypto 2% −$2
world 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.3% -13.4% 42% 42% -24.6%
≤30d 37 -12.0% -20.3% 32% 32% -25.6%
≤90d 55 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 42% -14.1%
all 55 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 42% -14.1%
10% -19.7% 36% -22.4%
15% -27.4% 35% -29.9%
20% -34.6% 31% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses23 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage39d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $7 −$1 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -70%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -35%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +103%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $6 −$2 -38%
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 −$4 -30%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 +$6 +228%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $5 +$3 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$1 -11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $8 −$2 -19%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$7 +118%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $7 +$5 +73%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $3 +$2 +74%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 +$3 +50%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$3 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 41h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $5 44h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $7 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $11 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 52¢ $3 7d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $3 7d
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 10d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 10d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 15d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 32¢ $4 15d
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 15d
Austria vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records