Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x859b…6bba
world · 34 markets active 21h ago
1.0score
+$12,683 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,450 · open −$2,561
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,131
Realized+$9,450
Unrealized−$2,561
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses20 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage210d
Avg bet$6,767
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$5,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 81¢ $20,691 $18,131 −$2,561 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 16 $1,098 −$451 -41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 15 $44,328 +$5,989 +14%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 28 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
BMW Open: Marin Cilic vs Daniel Altmaier Apr 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-01-05? Apr 28 $11 −$11 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 28 $867 −$18 -2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Apr 28 $3,331 +$46 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 25 $878 +$67 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $93,619 +$3,628 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $510 +$80 +16%
Avalanche vs. Oilers Apr 14 $784 +$146 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 1? Apr 01 $63 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 31 $4,152 +$89 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 30 $40 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 30 $40 −$27 -68%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $149 −$52 -35%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Mar 26 $284 −$76 -27%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Feb 17 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 24 $1,222 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 19 $7 +$4 +57%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 13 $3,247 +$24 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 12 $7,389 +$4 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $900 −$61 -7%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 12 $990 +$34 +3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 12 $5,697 +$34 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 12 $566 +$40 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jan 11 $20 +$16 +80%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 10 $1,215 +$55 +4%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 25 $100 +$81 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Nov 19 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Nov 18 $97 −$35 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 96% +$7,294
other 2% +$48
politics 1% +$20
sports 1% +$58
crypto 1% −$471
finance 0% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $6,045 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $93 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $7 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $100 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $13 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $223 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $66 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $256 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $102 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $930 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $930 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $71 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $50 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $27 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1,329 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $62 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $623 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $6,032 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $3,720 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $20,209 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $10 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $9 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $20 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $40 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $15 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $186 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $45 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $7 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% +1.5%
≤90d 19 -29.6% -36.3% 42% 21% -4.0%
all 33 -7.8% -16.6% 61% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 27% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 15% -13.7%
15% -31.9% 15% -22.0%
20% -38.5% 12% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,130.63 · official $18,132.86 (match) · 1397 history records