Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:12:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859e…bacb politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% $0
world 27% −$4
other 20% −$1
sports 7% $0
culture 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -6.2% -15.1% 0% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 7 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 0% -11.4%
all 31 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage273d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $20 −$2 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $39 −$2 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $2 −$1 -22%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? Sep 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 8h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $17 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 92¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $37 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $25 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $4 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $21 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $37 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $39 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $28 262d
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $28 263d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 263d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 263d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $28 263d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 263d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $28 264d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $28 264d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $28 264d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? SELL No 94¢ $27 265d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 265d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $27 265d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.50 · official $31.50 (match) · 96 history records