Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x859f…e766 politics 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$883 (+0%) realized +$880 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 113L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,261per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$21
14 days−$47
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$101
other 36% −$261
sports 15% +$1,208
culture 3% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 1% +$4
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -8.2% -17.0% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 86 -15.2% -23.3% 5% 1% -9.5%
all 144 -3.2% -12.4% 22% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 9% -9.1%
10% -20.8% 9% -17.8%
15% -28.5% 8% -25.7%
20% -35.5% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$1,726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$17 · ×5.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$880
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,261
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $439 $442 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $3,221 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,229 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,152 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3,764 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,996 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,019 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,418 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1,606 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $4,502 −$7 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,923 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,413 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4,000 −$5 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,019 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $71 −$71 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 02 $649 +$1 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $437 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2,402 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,630 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,329 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,039 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $552 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,793 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,169 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $1,605 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,678 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,550 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,515 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,726 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $330 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $330 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $218 23h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 25h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,034 4d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $985 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $986 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,056 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,216 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,217 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $956 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $958 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $439 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,418 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,545 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,547 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,604 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,606 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $405 12d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,203 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $405 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $441.95 · official $441.95 (match) · 511 history records