trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | $150 | $154 | +$4 (+2%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 11¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-4%) |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $2 | −$2 (-50%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $60 | $0 | −$60 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 10 | $230 | −$122 | -53% |
| US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline? | Mar 30 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? | Mar 30 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 28 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Jan 07 | $21 | +$3 | +14% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? | Jan 07 | $42 | +$9 | +20% |
| China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? | Jan 07 | $300 | +$14 | +4% |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | Jan 07 | $300 | +$19 | +6% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Nov 01 | $534 | +$58 | +11% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Oct 22 | $276 | +$100 | +36% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $156 | +$12 | +8% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 18 | $400 | +$9 | +2% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Sep 17 | $152 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? | Jul 03 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US-China trade deal before June? | Jul 03 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the EPL? | Jul 03 | $21 | +$6 | +27% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jul 03 | $10 | +$19 | +186% |
| Will DeepSeek be #1 model before July? | Jul 03 | $100 | +$6 | +6% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 3 | -84.3% | -85.8% | 0% | 0% | -72.0% |
| all | 18 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 67% | 33% | -14.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.1% | 33% | -14.2% |
| 10% | -28.6% | 17% | -22.4% |
| 15% | -35.5% | 11% | -29.9% |
| 20% | -41.8% | 6% | -36.8% |