Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ac…4de7 other 537 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%510W / 23L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$9
14 days−$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 35% +$4
sports 28% +$3
other 27% +$10
politics 3% −$4
crypto 3% +$2
world 2% +$2
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 1% -10.1%
≤30d 435 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 533 +3.6% -6.3% 96% 2% -9.3%
all 533 +3.6% -6.3% 96% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 2% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 1% -17.9%
15% -23.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses510 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)533 / 537
History coverage44d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $7 20m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $7 40m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $15 42m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $15 47m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $17 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $16 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.69 · official $0.00 (match) · 1212 history records