Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x85ad…c2de other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$245 (-26%) realized −$244 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$46
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$157
sports 35% −$76
crypto 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.3% -42.4% 27% 27% -24.3%
≤30d 20 +40.4% +27.0% 30% 30% +2.8%
≤90d 20 +40.4% +27.0% 30% 30% +2.8%
all 43 +4.4% -5.5% 28% 28% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 28% -32.7%
10% -14.6% 23% -39.2%
15% -22.8% 21% -45.0%
20% -30.4% 19% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$244
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage148d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $42 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $99 +$13 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$66 +1288%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 +$67 +365%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jan 27 $19 −$19 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BTC Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Americas Closed Qu Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-01-26? Jan 26 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC end in a draw? Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $8 +$42 +525%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $34 +$10 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - European Pro League S Jan 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $22 +$27 +122%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $28 +$72 +257%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jan 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming vs Alter Ego (BO7) - World Cha Jan 25 $20 +$11 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $111 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $99 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger 7¢ $5 7d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 100¢ $86 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.06 · official $4.06 (match) · 72 history records