Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x85ad…f8c7 other 5 markets active 3d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1 (+17%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$2
sports 43% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -0.0%
≤30d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -0.0%
≤90d 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -0.0%
all 4 +16.3% +5.2% 25% 25% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.2% 25% -0.0%
10% -4.9% 25% -9.6%
15% -14.0% 25% -18.3%
20% -22.5% 25% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 4d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.38 · official $1.38 (match) · 6 history records