Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b2…0ab9 sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$219 (-3%) realized −$195 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%76W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$129
14 days+$182
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$185
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +23.4% +11.6% 60% 60% +26.4%
≤30d 43 +18.5% +7.2% 47% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 97 -4.7% -13.7% 39% 38% -19.7%
all 181 +5.2% -4.8% 42% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 41% -12.1%
10% -13.9% 40% -20.5%
15% -22.3% 38% -28.2%
20% -29.9% 34% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$32 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses76 / 105
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 181
History coverage194d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 89 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $26 +$26 +101%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$45 +89%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $21 +$27 +128%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 +$49 +128%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 +$40 +82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $39 +$40 +105%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $82 +$28 +34%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $13 +$30 +226%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $48 +$67 +139%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $42 −$41 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $60 +$34 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $58 +$58 +101%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $51 +$5 +10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $56 +$54 +97%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $41 +$101 +246%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $44 −$43 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports - Map 3 Winner May 31 $51 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $10 +$45 +442%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Gam May 28 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 26 $8 +$16 +208%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winne May 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: Clair Obscur vs Julie&cie - Map 2 Winner May 23 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: L Guide Gaming vs Arneb - Game 2 Winner May 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-Zero Tenacity vs Clair Obscur (BO3) - CCT Europe Cl May 21 $48 −$47 -98%
Dota 2: Nix Team vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Grou May 21 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $73 +$53 +73%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner May 19 $46 +$25 +54%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs May 19 $31 +$16 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs TDK - Map 1 Winner May 19 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort - Map 2 Winner May 18 $10 +$67 +649%
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs Esport Academy Copenhagen - Map 2 Winner May 18 $58 −$58 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 14 $29 −$12 -41%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta May 14 $52 −$51 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner May 11 $75 −$74 -99%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng May 08 $70 −$69 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods - Map 1 Winner May 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $52 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $26 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ $25 2h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 34¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $96 20h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $51 21h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $49 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 43¢ $21 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 20¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 32¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $87 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 43¢ $38 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $89 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $49 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $79 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $39 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 39¢ $39 7d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 20¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Lavked 100¢ $110 7d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Lavked 74¢ $82 7d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $13 9d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 9d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $48 10d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 31¢ $26 10d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 56¢ $51 11d
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 24¢ $8 12d
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 36¢ $34 12d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $94 12d
Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 63¢ $60 12d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $116 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 313 history records