Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85b3…06b8 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%44W / 14L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$5
crypto 14% +$12
tech 3% +$1
economics 2% −$1
other 2% −$1
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 58 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses44 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage549d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $68 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $51 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? Oct 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $43 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 15 $17 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 03 $9 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 22 $59 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 18 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $4,719 −$5 -0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $37 +$9 +26%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.35-1.39ºC in February 20 Mar 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 11 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 31d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $15 62d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $54 63d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 92d
Will Chainlink dip to $4 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $37 94d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $59 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $14 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 150d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 212d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 244d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 244d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $41 244d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 273d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $41 274d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $19 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $5 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $44 334d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.23 · official $70.23 (match) · 127 history records