Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b3…0b2e crypto 1581 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,309 (-7%) realized −$1,309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate67%1064W / 517L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$55
14 days−$857
30 days−$703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,093
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 -1.6% -11.0% 95% 4% -11.4%
≤30d 751 -5.2% -14.2% 80% 24% -14.3%
≤90d 1581 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 32% -14.7%
all 1581 -5.1% -14.2% 67% 32% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 32% -14.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 24% -22.8%
15% -29.9% 20% -30.3%
20% -36.8% 16% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1064 / 517
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1581 / 1581
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1581 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $24 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $22 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records