Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85b4…2d43
other · 36 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$1,866 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,805 · open −$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$149
Realized−$1,805
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 36
Avg bet$830
Trades / day773.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%
Chart Positions 4 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,345
7 days−$1,805
14 days−$1,805
30 days−$1,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $65 $69 +$4 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 44¢ 71¢ $38 $60 +$23 (+60%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? No 9¢ 2¢ $45 $12 −$33 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $36 $8 −$29 (-79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $403 $0 −$403 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $302 $0 −$302 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $77 $0 −$77 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $263 $0 −$263 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $380 $0 −$380 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $294 −$294 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 12 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $429 −$403 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $237 −$223 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $275 −$263 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $83 −$77 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$87 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,515 +$90 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,693 +$113 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $607 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $425 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $139 −$10 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $647 +$26 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $320 +$15 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $173 −$42 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 11 $545 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1,833 +$84 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 10 $136 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1,585 +$26 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 10 $233 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $50 −$7 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,417 +$143 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,903 +$99 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3,103 −$33 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $640 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $1,771 +$42 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $249 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $180 −$132 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $118 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $283 +$84 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $481 +$179 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2,175 +$137 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% +$844
crypto 4% −$1,114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 9¢ $48 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 7¢ $39 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $67 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $122 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 17h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 17¢ $89 18h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $54 19h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $96 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $23 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $92 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $60 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 7¢ $74 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $35 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 24h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $99 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $100 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $98 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -32.8% -39.2% 48% 5% -15.5%
≤30d 40 -32.8% -39.2% 48% 5% -15.5%
≤90d 40 -32.8% -39.2% 48% 5% -15.5%
all 40 -32.8% -39.2% 48% 5% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover773.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.2% 5% -15.5%
10% -45.0% 5% -23.6%
15% ← realistic here -50.3% 2% -31.0%
20% -55.2% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.08 · official $147.98 (match) · 3500 history records