Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b8…6b6a other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 135d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$109,981 (+27%) realized +$96,588 · open +$13,393
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%52W / 70L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,744per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$136,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 136d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$35,921
politics 32% −$7,797
sports 3% −$1,553
culture 1% +$1,593
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -67.8% -70.9% 13% 9% -76.6%
≤30d 66 -23.0% -30.3% 27% 23% -53.5%
≤90d 106 -16.9% -24.9% 41% 26% -36.8%
all 122 -17.4% -25.3% 43% 26% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.3% 26% -28.1%
10% -32.4% 21% -35.0%
15% ← realistic here -38.9% 18% -41.2%
20% -44.9% 16% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$3,472) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,049 vs −$1,748 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$136,101
Realized+$96,588
Unrealized+$13,393
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses52 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions30
Markets (closed)122 / 109
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$3,744
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 61¢ $19,494 $38,914 +$19,420 (+100%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 88¢ 94¢ $25,225 $26,864 +$1,639 (+6%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 88¢ $20,051 $25,544 +$5,493 (+27%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $15,669 $8,701 −$6,967 (-44%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 16¢ 20¢ $5,734 $7,000 +$1,266 (+22%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 53¢ 37¢ $7,664 $5,390 −$2,274 (-30%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $3,323 $4,461 +$1,138 (+34%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 71¢ 90¢ $3,418 $4,346 +$928 (+27%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 62¢ 83¢ $2,223 $2,965 +$742 (+33%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $3,173 $2,955 −$218 (-7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 60¢ $1,582 $2,320 +$738 (+47%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,624 $1,694 +$70 (+4%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 44¢ $1,234 $1,053 −$181 (-15%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2,689 $688 −$2,001 (-74%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 87¢ 99¢ $592 $674 +$83 (+14%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $1,588 $613 −$975 (-61%)
Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 84¢ 92¢ $386 $421 +$34 (+9%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 16¢ 2¢ $3,437 $351 −$3,086 (-90%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2,057 $323 −$1,733 (-84%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $188 $302 +$114 (+61%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 23¢ 11¢ $291 $136 −$155 (-53%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $109 $95 −$14 (-13%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 7¢ 1¢ $680 $85 −$595 (-87%)
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $49 $54 +$5 (+10%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 46¢ 84¢ $24 $44 +$20 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $3,870 −$3,870 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 19 $40 −$41 -102%
Will Gary Anderson win the PDC World Darts Championship? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 19 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix Pole? Jun 19 $5,574 −$5,574 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $11,891 −$10,962 -92%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $3,916 −$3,921 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Jun 19 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 19 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1,895 −$1,617 -85%
Rams vs. Bears Jun 19 $2,350 −$1,161 -49%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $1,692 −$1,692 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2 Jun 19 $946 −$946 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 19 $1,676 −$1,676 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix? Jun 19 $585 −$585 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 19 $8,343 −$8,343 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Jun 19 $298 −$298 -100%
Will South Africa win? Jun 19 $4,359 −$4,359 -100%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $719 −$719 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 19 $3,050 −$3,050 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $139 −$139 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 19 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jun 19 $3,702 −$3,702 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Pri Jun 19 $741 −$741 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $974 −$974 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Singapore Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Mercedes finish second in the 2025 Constructors' Championship? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Dutch Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $14,516 −$14,515 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1,714 −$1,714 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 19 $575 −$590 -102%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole? Jun 19 $1,458 −$1,458 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $1,185 −$1,180 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix? Jun 19 $1,413 −$1,459 -103%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Jun 19 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2,892 +$11,230 +388%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3,673 +$308 +8%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $27 +$13 +50%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8,462 −$5,388 -64%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1,041 −$44 -4%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 14 $585 −$38 -6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,280 −$3,280 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,343 +$176 +8%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $875 +$1,138 +130%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 11 $10,184 +$553 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $9,404 −$2,104 -22%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $314 +$148 +47%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2,818 +$2,354 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 91¢ $101 56m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 91¢ $655 57m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 88¢ $98 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 88¢ $367 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 3h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 8h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $312 8h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 67¢ $0 8h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 5¢ $157 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 5¢ $0 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 5¢ $97 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $160 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $1 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $0 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $3 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $1 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $0 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $3 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $1 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $0 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $0 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $1 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $29 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 7¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136,100.70 · official $136,094.31 (match) · 3500 history records