Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x85b8…5080 politics 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 33% −$11
sports 10% +$61
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -1.7% -11.0% 13% 10% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 10% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 8% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 5% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 24 $161 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $189 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $365 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $429 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $204 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $223 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $646 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $429 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $404 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $300 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $349 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $321 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $441 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $200 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $180 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 13h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $20 16h
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 16d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 20d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 20d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 21d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 22d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 26d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $207 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $165 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $165 27d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $161 28d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $161 28d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $189 28d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $189 29d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 30d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $180 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $180 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 391 history records