Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b9…fcd0 other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 32% −$1
politics 14% $0
finance 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.0%
all 33 -2.9% -12.1% 36% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage375d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $44 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $59 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $7 $0 +6%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 Open Championship? Aug 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 24 $23 $0 -2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2500 on July 9? Jul 09 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $23 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 05 $21 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 24 $21 $0 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Kelemen Hunor? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $28 5m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $17 17h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $28 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $29 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $17 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $17 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $32 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $32 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 18d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $25 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $26 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $30 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 20d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $6 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $24 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records