Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85b9…906d other 166 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (214 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$46,990 (+30%) realized +$43,669 · open +$3,321
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%61W / 24L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$956per market
Trades / day214.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$25,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$12,060
crypto 2% +$254
world 0% −$2
sports 0% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (214 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +56.8% +41.9% 77% 28% -1.6%
≤30d 85 +39.2% +26.0% 72% 28% -0.7%
≤90d 85 +39.2% +26.0% 72% 28% -0.7%
all 85 +39.2% +26.0% 72% 28% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover214.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.0% 28% -0.7%
10% +13.9% 19% -10.2%
15% ← realistic here +2.9% 18% -18.9%
20% -7.2% 13% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,239) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$119 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.12 per $1 lost it wins $4.12
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$25,535
Realized+$43,669
Unrealized+$3,321
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses61 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions86
Markets (closed)85 / 166
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$956
Trades / day214.3
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 74¢ $2,766 $3,430 +$664 (+24%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $596 $2,805 +$2,209 (+370%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $1,964 $1,949 −$15 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,740 $1,750 +$10 (+1%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 88¢ $922 $1,718 +$796 (+86%)
Will Germany go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1,500 $1,480 −$20 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 26¢ $1,202 $1,112 −$90 (-7%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 56¢ $1,226 $915 −$311 (-25%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $898 $908 +$10 (+1%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $810 $812 +$2 (+0%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 29¢ $797 $723 −$75 (-9%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $700 $663 −$38 (-5%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 38¢ $663 $639 −$25 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $615 $623 +$8 (+1%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $547 $554 +$7 (+1%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $501 $501 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 10¢ $173 $424 +$251 (+145%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 90¢ 94¢ $391 $408 +$17 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 62¢ $432 $369 −$63 (-15%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $325 $338 +$12 (+4%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $330 $333 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $280 $290 +$10 (+4%)
Will Harry Kane record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 78¢ $235 $259 +$25 (+11%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 38¢ $253 $203 −$50 (-20%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $146 $200 +$54 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2,706 +$86 +3%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $2,076 +$35 +2%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $9,001 +$202 +2%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $15,897 +$1,829 +12%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $1,693 +$75 +4%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1,080 +$1 +0%
Will Neymar win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Sweden finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 21 $36 +$11 +30%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $2,426 −$177 -7%
Will Emiliano Buendía score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $425 +$9 +2%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 21 $1,636 +$607 +37%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $1,151 +$190 +16%
Will Erling Haaland record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIF Jun 21 $28 +$669 +2357%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $3,105 +$1,464 +47%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $3,140 +$254 +8%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,760 +$149 +5%
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 20 $2,256 +$294 +13%
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 20 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $131 +$339 +259%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $1,860 +$90 +5%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $744 +$29 +4%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,953 +$126 +4%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $44 −$43 -96%
Will Jamal Musiala score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,239 +$252 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $1,551 −$1,551 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $206 −$206 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $538 −$512 -95%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3,660 +$100 +3%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 19 $1,892 +$81 +4%
Will Curaçao finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 18 $461 +$25 +5%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $527 +$14 +3%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $13 +$397 +2977%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 18 $240 +$142 +59%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 18 $443 +$290 +66%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $952 +$889 +93%
Will Achraf Hakimi record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $104 +$4 +4%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,049 +$29 +3%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $2,276 +$45 +2%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $659 +$45 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $70 14m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 19m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 83¢ $10 29m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 83¢ $5 32m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 32m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $88 33m
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $5 48m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 52m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 53m
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $30 58m
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $8 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 40¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 83¢ $4 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 56¢ $848 2h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 83¢ $7 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $124 2h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $147 2h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $147 2h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $147 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,534.71 · official $25,534.56 (match) · 3500 history records