Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:12:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85bd…7f75 weather 648 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,249 (+10%) realized +$18,022 · open +$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate78%498W / 141L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$823
7 days+$735
14 days+$2,198
30 days+$3,057
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% +$15,968
other 7% −$124
politics 1% +$143
sports 1% +$727
culture 0% +$7
finance 0% −$48
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.3% -13.4% 76% 21% -4.1%
≤30d 154 +1.9% -7.8% 82% 35% -4.6%
≤90d 617 +4.0% -5.9% 78% 38% -1.1%
all 639 +4.1% -5.8% 78% 38% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 38% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 17% -10.5%
15% -23.0% 10% -19.2%
20% -30.6% 6% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$60 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$3,458
Realized+$18,022
Unrealized+$227
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses498 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions9
Markets (closed)639 / 648
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$280
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $700 $696 −$4 (-1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 75¢ 84¢ $593 $662 +$69 (+12%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $647 $652 +$5 (+1%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 66¢ 76¢ $451 $526 +$74 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $350 $355 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $117 $130 +$13 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $97 $121 +$24 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 58¢ $76 $102 +$26 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $261 −$207 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$18 +28%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $95 +$16 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,485 +$149 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$2 +9%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $501 +$33 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $337 +$634 +188%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $877 +$205 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $618 +$20 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $61 −$13 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $117 −$42 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$30 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,001 +$23 +2%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $935 +$29 +3%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $802 +$68 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,205 +$99 +8%
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G Jun 14 $31 −$28 -92%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $351 +$34 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $551 +$31 +6%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $78 +$24 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $215 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $362 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,281 +$111 +9%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $174 −$17 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $58 +$7 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $410 +$25 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,686 +$140 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $150 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $209 −$2 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $324 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2,276 +$103 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 8? Jun 08 $73 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $506 +$114 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $200 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $70 +$11 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $246 +$8 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 7? Jun 07 $44 +$112 +258%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $744 +$34 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,502 +$46 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $165 +$24 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $118 4h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $47 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $701 6h
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $601 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $350 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $201 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 87¢ $60 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $201 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 89¢ $47 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 11h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $97 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 78¢ $64 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $492 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $141 33h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 84¢ $98 33h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $805 34h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 85¢ $95 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 42h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $501 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $337 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 96¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,458.22 · official $3,458.22 (match) · 3500 history records