Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85bd…214f world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
politics 22% +$1
other 17% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +11.6% +0.9% 47% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 15 +11.6% +0.9% 47% 7% -9.9%
all 45 +5.2% -4.8% 38% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -13.9% 4% -18.2%
15% -22.2% 4% -26.1%
20% -29.9% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage268d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 41¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $101 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $21 −$1 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $41 +$1 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 29 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $45 −$2 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 07 $7 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 07 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will Karel Havlíček be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic a Oct 06 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Sep 30 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $45 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $45 3h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $45 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $45 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $45 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $45 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records