Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

85
0x85be…cfff
weather · 32 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$16 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$15 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$41
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)21 / 32
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 11 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$26
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 84¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? No 84¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 89¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? No 78¢ 78¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? No 69¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on June 6? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? No 74¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? No 77¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 6? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1843%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +58%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 16°C or below on June 6 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on June Jun 05 $10 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 75% −$13
other 18% −$9
crypto 5% $0
sports 2% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 14? BUY Yes $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $5 51m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $5 52m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 5h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY No 92¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $3 32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No $0 38h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 79¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY No 82¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? BUY No 62¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 68¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 10? BUY No 77¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 89¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +81.1% +63.9% 59% 59% +41.6%
≤30d 21 +52.7% +38.1% 48% 48% +10.2%
≤90d 21 +52.7% +38.1% 48% 48% +10.2%
all 21 +52.7% +38.1% 48% 48% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.1% 48% +10.2%
10% +24.9% 24% -0.3%
15% +12.8% 14% -10.0%
20% +1.8% 10% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.56 · official $40.76 (match) · 45 history records