Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:28:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85c0…9231 crypto 342 markets active 7d ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,241 (+81%) realized +$11,241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%158W / 228L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day118.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$324
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -59.0% -62.9% 10% 10% -90.1%
≤30d 319 -9.5% -18.1% 39% 36% -32.4%
≤90d 386 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 38% -23.3%
all 386 -7.7% -16.5% 41% 38% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 38% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 36% -30.6%
15% -31.8% 34% -37.3%
20% -38.5% 27% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$39 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses158 / 228
Open positions0
Markets (closed)386 / 342
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day118.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 386 Trades
no open positions (229 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $278 −$278 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$26 -7418%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $187 −$187 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $0 −$48 -9899%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $143 −$143 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $143 +$75 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 +$6 +1332%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $138 −$135 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records