Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x85c0…5bac other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$36
politics 23% −$8
economics 6% −$1
sports 4% +$11
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 102 +0.3% -9.2% 12% 7% -9.5%
all 106 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage95d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $166 $167 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $301 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $82 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $58 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $546 −$3 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 03 $274 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? May 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $270 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 19 $267 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $278 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $483 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $607 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 13 $283 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $329 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $291 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $286 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $524 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 25h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 27h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $79 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $166 4d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $60 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 15d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 24d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 24d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $43 26d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $43 26d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $49 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $49 29d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 31d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.50 · official $245.50 (match) · 295 history records