Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85c0…d9cf crypto 1079 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,228 (-28%) realized −$9,228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%398W / 681L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$284est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$503
14 days−$503
30 days−$961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$3,727
sports 44% −$883
other 2% −$242
finance 2% +$144
weather 1% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -17.5% -25.3% 31% 31% -29.6%
≤30d 171 -19.8% -27.4% 30% 30% -30.1%
≤90d 659 -19.5% -27.2% 34% 33% -22.0%
all 1079 -14.4% -22.6% 37% 35% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 35% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 33% -30.0%
15% -36.8% 31% -36.8%
20% -43.0% 27% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$20 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses398 / 681
Est. fees paid−$284
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions (210 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$18 -35%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $51 −$2 -5%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire Jun 28 $41 +$52 +127%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Nottinghamshire Jun 28 $30 +$19 +61%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $31 +$210 +683%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India Jun 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? Jun 28 $122 −$115 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $46 −$30 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 −$7 -18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$8 -15%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand Jun 27 $152 −$60 -40%
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Mysore Warriors vs Gulbarga Mystics Jun 27 $41 +$30 +73%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Luxembourg vs Serbia Jun 27 $61 +$24 +40%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Belize Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Jun 27 $135 +$52 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $39 −$38 -98%
T20 Central Europe Cup: Czechia vs Serbia Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$27 +127%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1AM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 −$19 -38%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$35 +70%
Major League Cricket: Mi New York vs Texas Super Kings Jun 26 $71 −$47 -67%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Nottinghamshire Jun 26 $30 +$16 +53%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Gloucestershire Jun 26 $111 +$22 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$19 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Jun 26 $30 −$12 -39%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Worcestershire Jun 26 $31 −$15 -49%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Lancashire Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 8AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $107 −$100 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$9 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $31 −$10 -33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 −$29 -35%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$87 +206%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$40 -95%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Brazil Jun 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$28 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$3 -67%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $33 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 52¢ $48 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire SELL Kent 100¢ $92 4h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire BUY Kent 43¢ $10 5h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire BUY Kent 44¢ $10 5h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire BUY Kent 43¢ $10 5h
T20 Blast: Kent vs Hampshire BUY Kent 44¢ $10 5h
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Nottinghamshire SELL Nottinghamshire 98¢ $49 5h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 98¢ $241 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $10 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs India BUY India 36¢ $20 7h
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Nottinghamshire BUY Nottinghamshire 60¢ $30 8h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 11¢ $10 10h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 13¢ $21 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 7¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 7¢ $11 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 7¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 15¢ $52 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 44¢ $33 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $46 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $43 23h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 20¢ $53 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL New Zealand 15¢ $19 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 26h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand BUY New Zealand 38¢ $51 27h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs New Zealand SELL England 54¢ $72 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records