Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85c7…b7ba crypto 1473 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$390 (-5%) realized −$390 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%757W / 716L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days+$110
14 days+$84
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$354
other 13% +$14
sports 11% +$77
world 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +10.1% -0.4% 51% 47% -3.8%
≤30d 146 -15.7% -23.7% 49% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 1473 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 46% -12.7%
all 1473 -5.8% -14.8% 51% 46% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 46% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 39% -21.0%
15% -30.4% 29% -28.7%
20% -37.2% 20% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$390
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses757 / 716
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1473 / 1473
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1473 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$71 +140%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $71 −$12 -17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$18 -60%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$68 +222%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$41 -82%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 +$21 +20%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $65 −$32 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$33 +32%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $41 −$19 -47%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $24 −$9 -38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 −$5 -13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $22 +$18 +79%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $27 −$17 -63%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 24 $142 −$110 -77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $34 −$10 -30%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $23 −$16 -70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $82 +$18 +21%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $27 −$14 -52%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $61 +$52 +86%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$16 -78%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$24 -49%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$38 -74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$26 +126%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$8 -40%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$28 +271%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 +$31 +153%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$12 -59%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$7 +141%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 68¢ $22 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 94¢ $23 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $39 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 7h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 80¢ $20 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 26h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 26h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records