Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x85c7…e1d8 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% $0
sports 4% +$2
world 4% +$1
finance 4% −$2
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 38% -9.1%
≤30d 13 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 38% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 38% -9.1%
all 13 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 38% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -9.1%
10% -29.0% 38% -17.8%
15% -35.9% 31% -25.8%
20% -42.1% 23% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +31%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 25h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $1 4d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less BUY Yes $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records