Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85ca…16ce sports 780 markets active 3d ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$156 (+2%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%423W / 356L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day74.6pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$228
14 days−$121
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$162
crypto 3% −$74
other 1% −$31
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -14.6% -22.7% 47% 46% -26.6%
≤30d 779 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 51% -9.0%
≤90d 779 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 51% -9.0%
all 779 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 51% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 51% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -17.7%
15% -25.6% 42% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 32% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses423 / 356
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions1
Markets (closed)779 / 780
History coverage25d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day74.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 779 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $20 +$3 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $35 −$10 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$6 +37%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$8 +115%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $19 +$18 +97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $35 −$31 -87%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $3 +$3 +112%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $9 +$8 +83%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$3 -12%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +70%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$12 +55%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $6 +$3 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 15¢ $1 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $20 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 2¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 6¢ $3 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 23¢ $4 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 19¢ $5 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 19¢ $7 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $3 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 29¢ $3 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $3 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 12¢ $3 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $5 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 22¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 22¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $7 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 1¢ $0 4d
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 55¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $13 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $5 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $20 4d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $10.09 (match) · 2511 history records