Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85cc…4746 crypto 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate63%151W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$75
world 14% −$1
sports 4% +$63
other 4% −$12
finance 2% −$11
politics 1% +$8
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +3.8% -6.1% 62% 53% -9.2%
≤30d 218 -0.1% -9.6% 64% 45% -10.9%
≤90d 238 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 42% -10.5%
all 238 -0.7% -10.1% 63% 42% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 42% -10.5%
10% -18.7% 26% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 18% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses151 / 87
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions14
Markets (closed)238 / 252
History coverage65d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 45¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 54¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? No 65¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? No 38¢ 34¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $74 −$20 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$17 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$17 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$19 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$14 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$19 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $20 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 11m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 38¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $22 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $26 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $24 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $15 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $42 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $29 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $21 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.92 · official $145.15 · 763 history records