Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

85 0x85ce…d11e crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$39 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR79%break-even

Win rate89%17W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$36per market

Trades / day21.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +79%

net ROI/market (all)-3.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	+6.3%	-3.9%	89%	79%	-4.9%
≤30d	19	+6.3%	-3.9%	89%	79%	-4.9%
≤90d	19	+6.3%	-3.9%	89%	79%	-4.9%
all	19	+6.3%	-3.9%	89%	79%	-4.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-3.9%	79%	-4.9%
10% ← realistic here	-13.1%	32%	-14.0%
15%	-21.5%	11%	-22.3%
20%	-29.2%	0%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 23% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +19% → late -5% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$39 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.45 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$39

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses17 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)19 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$36

Trades / day21.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 19 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$2	+5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$10	+25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$14	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$9	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Jun 16	$40	−$40	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$5	+12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$6	+15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 16	$42	+$7	+18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 16	$40	+$5	+13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Jun 16	$40	−$39	-97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 16	$35	+$8	+23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 16	$35	+$5	+13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Jun 16	$36	+$6	+17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 16	$36	+$6	+16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$11	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 16	$30	+$3	+9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 16	$26	+$6	+21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$30	+$4	+13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$7	+23%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$40	59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$40	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$40	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$40	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	BUY Down	86¢	$40	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$20	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	78¢	$22	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$40	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$40	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$35	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$35	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$36	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	85¢	$36	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$31	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$30	3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$26	4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	87¢	$30	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$31	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records