Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85d1…8674 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$142 (-3%) realized −$130 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%47W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$294
7 days−$294
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$648
other 8% +$160
finance 1% +$20
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 41% -23.5%
≤30d 22 -3.4% -12.6% 41% 41% -23.5%
≤90d 99 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 45% -17.9%
all 99 -5.7% -14.7% 47% 45% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -17.9%
10% -22.8% 43% -25.8%
15% -30.3% 41% -33.0%
20% -37.1% 39% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$53 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses47 / 52
Open positions8
Markets (closed)99 / 107
History coverage86d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $160 −$155 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $62 +$60 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $32 +$145 +458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $128 +$68 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $104 +$132 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $57 +$56 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $120 +$193 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $155 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $145 +$140 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $137 −$130 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 04 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 04 $43 −$41 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 04 $20 +$1 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $46 +$34 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 03 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 03 $55 −$52 -95%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $41 +$56 +137%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 03 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 03 $89 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 03 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 03 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 03 $98 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 03 $47 +$73 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 03 $21 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 03 $65 +$49 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 03 $64 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 03 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 03 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 03 $57 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 03 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.68 · official $189.68 (match) · 472 history records