Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85d3…0698 other 339 markets active 1h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$877 (+5%) realized +$882 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%180W / 140L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days+$118
14 days−$24
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,237
sports 19% −$326
economics 4% −$15
world 3% −$131
politics 3% +$19
crypto 0% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 43% +1.4%
≤30d 29 -8.6% -17.3% 66% 34% -10.0%
≤90d 61 +8.8% -1.5% 66% 49% +0.8%
all 320 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 50% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 50% -5.0%
10% -16.4% 47% -14.1%
15% -24.5% 44% -22.4%
20% -31.9% 38% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$29 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized+$882
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses180 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions19
Markets (closed)320 / 339
History coverage260d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 320 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $75 $88 +$13 (+18%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $51 $76 +$25 (+49%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $26 $37 +$11 (+40%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $38 $31 −$7 (-18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+6%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 41¢ 43¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 13¢ $9 $20 +$11 (+117%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $7 −$12 (-64%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $5 −$16 (-74%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $3 −$12 (-82%)
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 133 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 +$18 +67%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $90 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $23 −$3 -14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Marc Pubill be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Fabián Ruiz be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Nico Williams be in Spain's Starting 11? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$15 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 +$19 +73%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $18 +$5 +28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $103 +$61 +60%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $118 +$18 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $110 −$100 -91%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Andrey Santos be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squ Jun 02 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $22 $0 +2%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 18 $172 +$8 +5%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 +$48 +95%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $27 +$23 +83%
Will Xabi Alonso be the next permanent manager of Chelsea F.C.? May 16 $0 $0 -98%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 16 $105 +$31 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $45 +$28 +62%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 14 $87 +$5 +5%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 13 $207 +$42 +20%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $25 +$23 +90%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $50 +$53 +106%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-26? Apr 24 $50 −$49 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $26 +$60 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $29 55m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $41 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 48¢ $40 1h
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 20h
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 20h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 23¢ $11 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $26 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $24 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $26 42h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 43h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 43h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals BUY Yes $1 43h
Will Marc Pubill be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 100¢ $250 45h
Will Fabián Ruiz be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 45h
Will Unai Simón be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 45h
Will Nico Williams be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $25 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $26 46h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2d
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $26 3d
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $26 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 3d
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY No 65¢ $6 3d
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY No 64¢ $6 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.98 · official $489.98 (match) · 858 history records