Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:24:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85d4…5b82 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$14
other 23% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 8% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 3% −$6
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+33.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +286.0% +249.3% 71% 14% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +286.0% +249.3% 71% 14% -8.9%
all 40 +47.8% +33.7% 50% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.7% 5% -10.3%
10% +20.9% 2% -18.9%
15% +9.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -1.5% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage473d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $55 $55 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $55 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $42 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $58 +$13 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $12 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Dec 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on May 7? May 10 $8 −$8 -100%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 29 $11 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 28 $1 $0 -26%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 24 $11 $0 +3%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $16 $0 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Digital Asset Summit? Mar 21 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 20 $12 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $55 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $55 2d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $15 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $42 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $3 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $6 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $12 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $39 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $42 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $6 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $36 29d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $42 29d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 93¢ $1 356d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 370d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $114K on May 30? BUY No 96¢ $2 387d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.20 · official $55.20 (match) · 118 history records