Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85d5…6b2b other 632 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (487 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$862 (-7%) realized −$794 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate3%15W / 571L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day486.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$623
weather 16% −$138
politics 16% −$135
sports 5% −$54
world 4% −$76
tech 3% −$27
culture 2% −$13
economics 2% −$6
finance 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (487 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 586 -13.4% -21.6% 3% 1% -17.1%
≤30d 586 -13.4% -21.6% 3% 1% -17.1%
≤90d 586 -13.4% -21.6% 3% 1% -17.1%
all 586 -13.4% -21.6% 3% 1% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover486.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 1% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 1% -25.1%
15% -36.0% 0% -32.3%
20% -42.2% 0% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$794
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses15 / 571
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions46
Markets (closed)586 / 632
History coverage5d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day486.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Leon Goretzka join AC Milan? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $34 $26 −$8 (-25%)
Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ? Yes 78¢ 58¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-26%)
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 17¢ 9¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-49%)
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? No 79¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 20? No 52¢ 89¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 84¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+19%)
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Yes 66¢ 70¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on June 20? No 60¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+67%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+132%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next PMQ? No 81¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Jason Kidd be the next Portland Trail Blazers head coach? Yes 45¢ 12¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-74%)
Will Cambria launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Yes 66¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 60¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+16%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 51¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 20? Yes 38¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 20 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $32 $0 -2%
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 Jun 20 $29 −$15 -51%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F Jun 20 $28 −$2 -7%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $16 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 -4%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $88 −$6 -7%
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Jun 20 $23 −$2 -8%
GMGN FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 20 $12 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 20? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -13%
Will Oscar Bobb score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$3 -16%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 20 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 20 $15 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 20 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 20 $21 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 20 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 -5%
Will Starmer say "Northern Ireland" during the next PMQ? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Electio Jun 20 $54 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$1 -4%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between Jun 20 $24 −$1 -6%
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $23 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 20 $15 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -12%
Will 5+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 20 $35 −$4 -10%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $155 −$24 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $49 −$12 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $42 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Tori launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $9 −$1 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 20 $12 −$1 -6%
Will FalleN win a S-Tier event before June 30? Jun 20 $39 −$1 -2%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 20 $26 −$3 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1m
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? SELL No 86¢ $8 1m
Will Iran go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 86¢ $8 2m
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between SELL No 78¢ $7 19m
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between BUY No 78¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? SELL No 61¢ $3 37m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 63¢ $13 37m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $3 38m
Will Starmer say "Shadow" during the next PMQ? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 44m
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 SELL Yes 56¢ $11 49m
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $12 49m
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 55m
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 55m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F SELL No 44¢ $22 1h
Will Curaçao be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 F BUY No 46¢ $23 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? SELL No 86¢ $43 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 1h
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $8 1h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $10 1h
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 1h
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane SELL Kane 42¢ $4 1h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.73 · official $113.95 (match) · 2496 history records