Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
85 0x85d5…45ee sports 641 markets active 3h ago coverage 121d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$206,893 (-4%) realized −$210,973 · open +$4,080
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%439W / 233L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,615per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$16,383est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$24,541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 121d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$144,694
world 7% +$15,377
other 5% −$21,652
crypto 1% +$1,600
culture 0% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -42.1% -47.6% 38% 34% -58.6%
≤30d 179 -24.4% -31.6% 53% 47% -26.4%
≤90d 558 -14.0% -22.2% 62% 55% -22.1%
all 672 -10.1% -18.7% 65% 55% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 55% -16.5%
10% -26.5% 35% -24.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.6% 20% -31.8%
20% -40.1% 11% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$9,027) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,696 vs −$4,897 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$24,541
Realized−$210,973
Unrealized+$4,080
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses439 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$16,383
Open positions8
Markets (closed)672 / 641
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$7,615
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 86¢ 100¢ $9,564 $11,116 +$1,551 (+16%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 84¢ 100¢ $5,849 $6,958 +$1,109 (+19%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) T1 69¢ 100¢ $3,827 $5,543 +$1,717 (+45%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $250 $218 −$32 (-13%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 61¢ 64¢ $171 $178 +$7 (+4%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 61¢ 8¢ $300 $39 −$261 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 162 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jun 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 29 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 29 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 29 $22,550 −$22,550 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $6,270 −$6,270 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN Freecs - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 29 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $20,736 −$20,736 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Pl Jun 29 $2,493 −$2,493 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $17,347 −$17,347 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 29 $18,286 −$20,350 -111%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 29 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $7,097 −$7,097 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $15,378 −$15,378 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $4,853 −$4,853 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 29 $6,717 −$6,717 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 29 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
LoL: DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $4,913 −$4,913 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Jun 29 $1,841 −$1,841 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 29 $570 −$570 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 29 $10,000 −$10,000 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Jun 29 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 29 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $12,720 +$2,929 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $6,445 +$643 +10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $3,016 +$642 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $4,450 +$550 +12%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,007 +$292 +29%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $1,144 +$710 +62%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $5,018 +$664 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 28 $9,400 +$600 +6%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $3,515 +$607 +17%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $506 +$371 +73%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,008 +$317 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $5,877 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 81¢ $12,720 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $670 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $33 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $4,736 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $1,006 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $5 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $958 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $307 6h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $3,862 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 6h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $303 7h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $7,860 17h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $307 17h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $307 17h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $6 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $30 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $6 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $6 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $6 18h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 86¢ $71 18h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 82¢ $3,016 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $1,007 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 77¢ $1,510 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $2,005 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 57¢ $506 27h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 30h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $4,450 31h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 88¢ $5,018 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,541.05 · official $24,541.05 (match) · 3500 history records