Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
85 0x85d6…e161 politics 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$4
sports 18% +$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -6.0% -15.0% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 11 -4.4% -13.5% 27% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$398
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage96d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $188 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $754 +$1 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $1,406 +$1 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 23 $1,495 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 18m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 3h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 3h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $277 46h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $31 72d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $307 75d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 75d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 83d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $110 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $83 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $5 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $114 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 85d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 85d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $697 85d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $710 85d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,406 88d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $754 88d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 88d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 88d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 88d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,189 90d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,556 90d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 90d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 90d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.48 · official $398.48 (match) · 130 history records