Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:09:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
85 0x85d8…3cbe sports 1606 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,551 (-2%) realized −$4,249 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%728W / 869L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$2,700est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$785
7 days+$540
14 days+$222
30 days−$3,371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$1,796
other 22% −$6,787
world 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$10
finance 0% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 48% -4.9%
≤30d 617 -9.0% -17.7% 44% 44% -13.4%
≤90d 1597 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 46% -11.5%
all 1597 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 46% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 46% -19.9%
15% -30.1% 46% -27.7%
20% -37.0% 44% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$131 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,998
Realized−$4,249
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses728 / 869
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,700
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1597 / 1606
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$134
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 44¢ $500 $444 −$56 (-11%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $250 $256 +$6 (+2%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 44¢ $250 $210 −$40 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 19¢ 3¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-83%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $253 +$185 +73%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $254 +$218 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 +$534 +105%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 +$513 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $503 −$494 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$579 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $507 +$436 +86%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $656 +$663 +101%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$454 +90%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $462 +$701 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $195 +$241 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 +$534 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $270 −$265 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $509 +$741 +146%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $509 −$500 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $509 +$682 +134%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $508 −$500 -98%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $102 +$126 +124%
Andorra vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $250 +$250 +100%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $101 +$60 +59%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $200 −$200 -100%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 04 $196 +$204 +104%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $101 +$63 +62%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $101 +$77 +76%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $190 −$190 -100%
Albania vs. Israel: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $101 +$95 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $102 +$121 +119%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $254 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $509 16h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 16h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $253 38h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $254 38h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $503 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $254 40h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 40h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $509 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $656 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $462 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $195 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $270 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $350 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $202 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $202 6d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $509 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,998.22 · official $1,998.22 (match) · 3500 history records