Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x85d9…f859 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+8%) realized +$91 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate80%59W / 15L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day46.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +6.5% -3.7% 80% 66% -4.6%
≤30d 74 +6.5% -3.7% 80% 66% -4.6%
≤90d 74 +6.5% -3.7% 80% 66% -4.6%
all 74 +6.5% -3.7% 80% 66% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 66% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 31% -13.7%
15% -21.3% 11% -22.1%
20% -29.0% 1% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses59 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day46.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 74¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.44 · official $8.98 · 163 history records