Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
85 0x85db…d0e7 sports 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-4%) realized −$164 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%39W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$86
other 10% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -27.2% -34.1% 50% 50% -20.4%
≤30d 8 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 50% -22.4%
≤90d 58 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 59% -13.6%
all 58 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 59% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 59% -13.6%
10% -20.9% 47% -21.9%
15% -28.6% 34% -29.4%
20% -35.6% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$54 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses39 / 19
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions5
Markets (closed)58 / 63
History coverage55d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $29 +$19 (+188%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $192 +$33 +17%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $75 −$74 -98%
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues Jun 18 $46 +$29 +63%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $91 +$52 +57%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 26 $34 −$34 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $51 +$11 +21%
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas May 16 $59 +$36 +62%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $32 +$27 +83%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 14 $32 $0 -0%
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska May 14 $50 −$18 -36%
Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Hugo Dellien May 14 $45 +$5 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $48 −$47 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi May 08 $33 +$14 +42%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Comesana May 06 $40 −$40 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Pierluig May 04 $60 +$14 +23%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa May 04 $60 −$60 -99%
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong May 03 $51 +$37 +73%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Zdenek Kolar May 02 $81 −$80 -99%
Huzhou: Veronika Erjavec vs Katarzyna Kawa May 02 $61 −$60 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $50 −$44 -88%
UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Mai May 02 $151 +$44 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $49 +$26 +53%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $152 −$150 -99%
La Bisbal: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Elena Pridankina May 01 $101 +$5 +5%
Jiujiang: Keegan Smith vs Alex Bolt May 01 $101 +$13 +13%
Abidjan 2: Aziz Dougaz vs Florent Bax Apr 30 $51 +$4 +8%
Abidjan 2: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Karim Bennani Apr 30 $40 +$18 +45%
Aix en Provence: Martin Landaluce vs Ethan Quinn Apr 30 $101 +$19 +19%
Huzhou: Hanyu Guo vs Diletta Cherubini Apr 30 $81 +$17 +21%
Jiujiang: Giles Hussey vs Alex Bolt Apr 30 $81 +$24 +30%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 29 $51 +$10 +20%
Cagliari: Federico Arnaboldi vs Matteo Arnaldi Apr 29 $71 +$3 +4%
Ostrava: Zsombor Piros vs Tom Gentzsch Apr 29 $101 −$32 -32%
Madrid Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 29 $81 +$30 +37%
Shymkent 2: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Samuele Pieri Apr 29 $41 +$26 +62%
La Bisbal: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Anastasia Zakharova Apr 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Singles tournament at the Mad Apr 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Ostrava: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Maxim Mrva Apr 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Mauthausen: Joel Schwaerzler vs Jan Choinski Apr 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Abidjan 2: Robert Strombachs vs Florent Bax Apr 28 $100 +$32 +32%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $51 +$14 +27%
Cagliari: Aleksandar Vukic vs Marcos Giron Apr 28 $50 +$18 +36%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5) Apr 27 $15 +$9 +57%
Madrid Open: Karen Khachanov vs Jakub Mensik Apr 27 $50 +$7 +14%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 27 $90 +$26 +29%
La Bisbal: Ashlyn Krueger vs Storm Hunter Apr 27 $100 +$41 +41%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Coco Gauff Apr 27 $70 +$69 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $225 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $192 2h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Lucio Ratti 50¢ $75 12h
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues SELL Joao Domingues 99¢ $74 31h
ITF Lourinha: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Joao Domingues BUY Joao Domingues 60¢ $46 36h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $51 38h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $51 2d
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $91 2d
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $34 24d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 24d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien SELL Learner Tien 80¢ $61 24d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 65¢ $51 24d
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas SELL James Duckworth 100¢ $95 34d
Geneva Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Miguel Damas BUY James Duckworth 61¢ $59 34d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 77¢ $59 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 41¢ $32 36d
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm SELL Arthur Rinderknech 63¢ $32 36d
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm BUY Arthur Rinderknech 62¢ $32 36d
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska SELL Solana Sierra 29¢ $32 36d
Parma: Solana Sierra vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Solana Sierra 43¢ $50 36d
Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Hugo Dellien SELL Hugo Dellien 86¢ $50 36d
Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Hugo Dellien BUY Hugo Dellien 77¢ $45 36d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Flavio Cobolli 68¢ $50 39d
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi SELL Luciano Darderi 88¢ $47 41d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi BUY Luciano Darderi 61¢ $33 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.75 · official $93.75 (match) · 140 history records