Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85db…0d12 other 688 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$578 (-1%) realized −$577 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate65%443W / 241L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$856
crypto 5% +$92
world 0% +$129
sports 0% +$17
tech 0% +$8
politics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$7
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -27.1% -34.1% 57% 57% -8.5%
≤30d 32 -17.2% -25.1% 56% 41% -9.8%
≤90d 91 -14.3% -22.4% 55% 34% -13.0%
all 684 -7.5% -16.3% 65% 26% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 26% -10.1%
10% -24.3% 21% -18.7%
15% -31.6% 18% -26.6%
20% -38.3% 15% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$577
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses443 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)684 / 688
History coverage303d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $453 +$52 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $454 +$102 +22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$15 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $345 +$48 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $3 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $602 +$65 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $51 +$49 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $30 +$25 +83%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $605 +$21 +4%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $9 +$11 +129%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $400 +$6 +1%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $199 −$3 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $405 +$14 +4%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 +$2 +41%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $400 +$4 +1%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $505 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $453 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $448 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $454 44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 59¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 30¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 30¢ $5 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 99¢ $33 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? SELL Yes 88¢ $202 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 99¢ $500 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 99¢ $544 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.58 · official $38.58 (match) · 1608 history records