Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85dd…d8fe politics 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$1
sports 24% −$2
other 23% −$3
economics 9% $0
crypto 7% −$2
culture 7% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
all 140 -1.6% -11.0% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage168d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 96¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $51 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $41 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $39 $0 -1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 11 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 06 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 06 $77 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 06 $21 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 06 $16 $0 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 28 $46 $0 +1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jan 28 $13 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $41 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $50 13d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $51 13d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $42 26d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $41 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 34d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 37d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $18 127d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $29 129d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $47 129d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 129d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $48 129d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $50 129d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $50 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $44 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $44 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $49 129d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $49 129d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $46 129d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $46 129d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 97¢ $42 129d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 129d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $42 129d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $37 129d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $37 129d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 96¢ $6 129d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 129d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 96¢ $6 129d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 129d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.78 · official $40.78 (match) · 386 history records