Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
85 0x85df…9ef1 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$30 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$141
sports 27% +$119
world 3% $0
crypto 2% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +19.1% +7.8% 44% 44% -8.3%
≤30d 41 +19.1% +7.8% 44% 44% -8.3%
≤90d 41 +19.1% +7.8% 44% 44% -8.3%
all 41 +19.1% +7.8% 44% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.8% 44% -8.3%
10% -2.6% 39% -17.0%
15% -12.0% 37% -25.1%
20% -20.6% 27% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 45
History coverage5d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$24 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +47%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$15 +37%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$23 +187%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$13 -31%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +261%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$26 +259%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$100 +649%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 12m
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 10h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 10h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 11h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 36h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 36h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 36h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 36h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 37h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 37h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $33 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.91 · official $58.03 (match) · 101 history records