Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

85 0x85e0…b0fd other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$15 (+14%) realized +$13 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate70%7W / 3L

Drawdown91%max

Avg bet$10per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit45%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+33.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	10	+47.3%	+33.2%	70%	50%	+10.5%
≤90d	10	+47.3%	+33.2%	70%	50%	+10.5%
all	10	+47.3%	+33.2%	70%	50%	+10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.2%	50%	+10.5%
10%	+20.5%	50%	-0.1%
15%	+8.8%	50%	-9.7%
20%	-1.8%	30%	-18.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

29% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized+$13

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses7 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage11d

Avg bet$10

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown91%

Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	96¢	100¢	$43	$45	+$2 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$5	+$3	+52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	+$2	+9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 17	$3	+$16	+507%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	+$1	+41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 17	$3	+$3	+118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$14	+$1	+8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$2	+$1	+39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	96¢	$43	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	9d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	91¢	$20	10d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$3	10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$14	10d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	11d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	16¢	$5	11d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$3	11d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$3	11d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	11d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	71¢	$2	11d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.00 · official $45.00 (match) · 21 history records