Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
85 0x85e0…3a93 crypto 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,008 (-12%) realized −$3,883 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%52W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$743est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$5,395
crypto 36% −$664
politics 1% −$320
other 1% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +36.5% +23.5% 15% 15% +39.9%
≤30d 106 -6.6% -15.5% 24% 20% -5.4%
≤90d 257 -29.5% -36.2% 20% 16% -35.2%
all 257 -29.5% -36.2% 20% 16% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 16% -35.2%
10% -42.3% 12% -41.4%
15% -47.9% 12% -47.1%
20% -53.0% 9% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$58 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$3,883
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses52 / 205
Est. fees paid−$743
Open positions3
Markets (closed)257 / 260
History coverage71d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $93 $44 −$48 (-52%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $77 $1 −$76 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 202 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? Jun 21 $28 −$26 -94%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $26 −$24 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $32 +$497 +1553%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $15 −$14 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $52 −$33 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $59 −$55 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $48 −$45 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $149 −$123 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $141 −$5 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$254 +795%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $53 −$25 -47%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $32 −$30 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,966 +$134 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $99 +$34 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 13 $38 −$36 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$77 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $27 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $62 −$58 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $43 +$19 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $60 −$57 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $61 −$10 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $97 −$69 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $39 −$37 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $48 +$46 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$13 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $53 −$50 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $43 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $17 −$16 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $85 +$150 +177%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 +$16 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $19 −$17 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $27 −$5 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $35 −$33 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $242 +$37 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $13 −$12 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 16¢ $61 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 13¢ $82 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $29 41h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $32 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $59 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $27 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 8¢ $37 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $27 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $105 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.54 · official $59.65 (match) · 1062 history records