Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85e2…fb1d crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+2%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate56%57W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day100.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$33
other 5% +$6
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 40% -10.3%
≤30d 102 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 40% -10.3%
≤90d 102 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 40% -10.3%
all 102 -2.0% -11.4% 56% 40% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 40% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 24% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 16% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses57 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day100.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $230 −$49 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $102 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $207 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$10 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$26 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$17 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $66 −$65 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$20 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $84 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $97 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $127 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $153 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $81 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $23 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $40 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records