Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
85 0x85e8…474a other 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (240 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$81,239 (-18%) realized −$80,492 · open −$747
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11,264per market
Trades / day240.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$22,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$113,887
crypto 5% −$22,380
sports 1% +$2,010
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (240 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -18.7% -26.4% 32% 32% -41.0%
≤30d 38 +38.6% +25.4% 39% 39% -39.8%
≤90d 38 +38.6% +25.4% 39% 39% -39.8%
all 38 +38.6% +25.4% 39% 39% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover240.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.4% 39% -39.8%
10% +13.4% 32% -45.6%
15% ← realistic here +2.4% 26% -50.9%
20% -7.6% 24% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$19,095) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +96% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
87.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,207 vs −$13,766 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$22,156
Realized−$80,492
Unrealized−$747
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$11,264
Trades / day240.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? No 46¢ 44¢ $22,903 $22,156 −$747 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $19,095 −$19,095 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1,062 +$942 +89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22,676 −$22,676 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $23,990 +$26,254 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $18,550 −$18,550 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19,305 −$19,053 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 26 $2,494 −$2,494 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $4,182 −$4,182 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 26 $6,012 −$6,012 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $15,312 −$15,312 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $30,143 −$30,143 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,222 +$508 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25,520 +$20,185 +79%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $1,709 +$1,709 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,802 +$30,463 +525%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15,781 −$15,781 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15,540 +$36,259 +233%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $198 +$26 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22,380 −$22,380 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $1,074 −$1,074 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $14,611 −$14,611 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $12,852 −$12,852 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $20,094 −$20,094 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20,584 −$20,584 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $18,183 −$18,183 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $16,950 −$16,950 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,839 −$21,839 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $13,622 −$13,622 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $713 +$162 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,647 +$29,693 +308%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,060 +$127 +12%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,342 +$178 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $343 +$85 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,924 +$21,206 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $465 +$15,306 +3292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 46¢ $22,903 20m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $56 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $34 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $10 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $4 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $10 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $202 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $6 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $69 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $1 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $1 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $3 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $3 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $21 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $35 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $3 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $10 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $7 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $69 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $4 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $3 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $1 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $1 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $67 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,155.72 · official $22,155.72 (match) · 3500 history records