Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
85 0x85e9…574f sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$32 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$108
other 36% −$385
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 25% -30.1%
≤30d 4 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 25% -30.1%
≤90d 4 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 25% -30.1%
all 4 -5.2% -14.2% 75% 25% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 25% -30.1%
10% -22.4% 25% -36.8%
15% -29.9% 25% -42.9%
20% -36.8% 0% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$386 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 43¢ 42¢ $249 $246 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $173 +$81 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$386 -76%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $501 +$30 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $253 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $173 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 17¢ $118 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $504 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $531 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 94¢ $501 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $28 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.71 · official $245.71 (match) · 9 history records