Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
85 0x85e9…76e7 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$151 (+11%) realized +$171 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$195
7 days+$358
14 days+$135
30 days+$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 62% +20.1%
≤30d 12 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 42% -0.2%
≤90d 12 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 42% -0.2%
all 12 -21.1% -28.6% 42% 42% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 42% -0.2%
10% -35.4% 42% -9.8%
15% -41.7% 42% -18.5%
20% -47.4% 25% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$56 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$171
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage9d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $68 +$103 +152%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$89 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $286 +$172 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $121 +$64 +53%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $68 30h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $63 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $291 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $457 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $286 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $185 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $121 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 9d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.51 · official $80.89 · 23 history records